Welcome to my website! Here you can learn more about my research and about my work on impact measurement and research grant making.

As a researcher, I study how governments in developing countries build state capacity and become more effective. My work combines government partnerships evaluating large policy reforms on governance and decentralization with field experiments on poverty-targeting, entrepreneurship, and how diversity affects education.

As the Impact and Learning Manager at Stanford Impact Labs, I lead our impact measurement methodology and support the investment pipeline, from funding recommendations to monitoring and evaluation. I also build our internal AI systems, for selection support and knowledge management.

NOW: BUILDING A FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS THE SOCIAL IMPACT OF A WIDE PORTFOLIO OF RESEARCH PROJECTS
CURRENTLY

Impact & Learning Manager

Stanford Impact Labs, Stanford University

2024—
EDUCATION

Ph.D., Economics — Stanford University

M.A. & B.A. — Universidad de los Andes, Colombia

2018–2024
RESEARCH & FIELDWORK

Governance · Global development · Field experiments · AI and Social Science · Impact Measurement

Sierra Leone · Zambia · Colombia

Research

Governance, public goods and beliefs — Sierra Leone, Zambia, Colombia.

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COND. ACCEPTED JDE PRE-RESULTS

Candidate Entry Into Local Government

with Katherine Casey, Abou Bakarr Kamara, Niccolò Meriggi
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  • Local governments often struggle to attract capable, popular leaders. Is that because good candidates don't exist, or because parties won't pick them? We tested this ahead of Sierra Leone's 2023 local elections.
  • Combining community nominations with basic vetting surfaced people who were clearly more qualified and more popular than the usual candidates. A quarter of them went on to actually run for office.
  • The bottleneck isn't a shortage of good candidates. Party leaders keep re-running their own incumbents instead of picking them. Real renewal means changing who parties choose, not just who's available.

The competence of public officials affects state performance and economic growth, yet building this capacity is difficult: it requires protocols to identify more capable, representative individuals; their willingness to run for office; and party interest in supporting their candidacies. We evaluate an experiment designed to parse these problems of identification, entry and gatekeeping in advance of the 2023 local elections in Sierra Leone. A combination of community nominations and technocratic screening identifies individuals who are substantially higher quality and enjoy broader popular support than both incumbents and status quo aspirants. One quarter of top nominees formally enter politics, positively self-selected on quality, and their entry improves the maximum quality observed in candidate applicant pools. Party gatekeepers, however, are not more likely to select these capable, popular nominees and instead favor their own re-running incumbents. Results suggest that the challenge for political renewal is less about supply than demand in this context: there are indeed better potential candidates out there who are willing to run, but institutional party incentives work against selecting them.

IGC BLOG
WORKING PAPER

An Experiment in Decentralization: Evidence from the Zambian Constituency Development Fund

with Jeremy Bowles, Katherine Casey, Danielle Handel
/
  • Zambia dramatically expanded the fund that lets local districts run their own development projects. Working with the government, we tested what happens when districts get even more control over how that money gets spent.
  • Districts with more control got projects approved much faster and moved toward simpler, quicker ways of awarding contracts. Spending also matched what communities actually asked for a bit better. Early signs point to faster completion too, without cutting quality.
  • More local control looks good on paper, but the real result here is faster spending that lines up better with what people want, and no obvious cost in quality. That's a concrete case for decentralizing decisions, not just a theoretical one.

We present initial results from a randomized evaluation that varies the degree of decentralization within Zambia's Constituency Development Fund, which has expanded twenty-fold since 2021. In partnership with the government, we randomly assigned districts to a reform with two components: reducing central government influence over local community project selections, and expanding districts' discretion to use light-touch procurement processes. District officials internalized both reforms, obtaining project approvals substantially faster and shifting hundreds of tenders into simpler procurement processes. Increased discretion modestly improves the sectoral alignment of selected projects with local demand while, at a minimum, not exacerbating existing biases in the spatial allocation of resources. Reduced bidding on tenders appears to reflect a reduction in non-competitive bids rather than a consequential reduction in competition. Early results also suggest this can speed up project completion without negative effects on quality.

IGC PROJECT IGC POLICY DOC PROJECT AT SIL
WORKING PAPER

Informal Taxation in Rural Sierra Leone

/
  • In many rural communities, local chiefs decide who has to contribute unpaid labor to public projects. Is that fairer than the alternatives, or does it just fall hardest on the poor? I tested this with a field experiment in rural Sierra Leone.
  • Letting chiefs pick who contributes caused slightly less dodging of the work than choosing people at random or by household survey. But people still went out of their way, like accepting lower pay elsewhere, to avoid being picked, and that burden lands hardest on poorer households.
  • Traditional authority does about as well as these seemingly fairer alternatives at getting people to pitch in. None of the options tested here stopped the cost from falling on the poor, so fixing that will take more than changing who decides.

This paper investigates the relative merit of traditional leaders in promoting cooperative behavior when informally taxing citizens' labor in low-income states and whether this comes at the expense of relatively poor households. I designed a field experiment to measure whether citizens distort their behavior when facing informal taxation schemes by engaging in costly actions to avoid contributing their labor to a public good. I randomize communities into different methods to select contributors and compare the status quo of selection by chiefs versus two alternatives: random lotteries and progressive selection based on household surveys. Results show that chiefs' informal taxes distort individual behavior slightly less than the alternative mechanisms, revealing that chiefs can indeed promote pro-social behavior but not in a magnitude suggesting large efficiency gains. However, chief selection leads to less overall participant effort during the experiment, suggesting that chiefs' involvement does alter people's incentives during income-generating tasks. When focusing on differences by wealth, I also find chiefs do generate distortions among this group, which are more likely to accept lower wages to avoid being informally taxed by chiefs. On the other hand, progressive selection is slightly more distortionary than chief selection in terms of people avoiding informal taxes through costly actions, shifting costs toward people with intermediate levels of wealth.

IGC POLICY BRIEF
WORKING PAPER

The Limits of Exposure: Socioeconomic Diversity and Teamwork in College

with Leopoldo Fergusson, Juliana Londoño-Vélez
/
  • Can putting students from different economic backgrounds on the same team help bridge Colombia's class divides? We tested this inside a required course at an elite Colombian university.
  • Mixed-background teams met less, liked working together less, and were less willing to team up again, even though grades didn't suffer. Pairing students with an existing friend helped, but mainly for lower-income students.
  • Mixing students by class doesn't build lasting bonds on its own, and it can even backfire. Programs aiming for real integration should probably lean on existing friendships, not just mixed rosters.

Can structured cross socioeconomic status (SES) collaboration in elite universities build economic connectedness? We study this question in a field experiment embedded in a required undergraduate course at Universidad de los Andes during a period of rapidly rising low-SES enrollment. We map within-section friendship networks and elicit students' willingness to trade off working with a friend for working with a higher-performing non-friend, using randomized monetary incentives and randomized SES information about the potential teammate. We then randomly assign students to essay teams that vary in SES composition and instrumentally pair them with a random friend to work with. Baseline networks display strong SES homophily. Making SES salient increases high-SES students' preference to work only with friends, while low-SES students' choices become more homophilous at the top of the performance distribution. In realized teams, SES diversity reduces meeting and satisfaction and lowers willingness to work together again, with little effect on essay grades. These frictions persist in a follow-up survey, while friend-pairing mainly benefits low-SES students.

WORKING PAPER

Too Much or Too Little Faith in Success? Experimental Evidence from Colombian Entrepreneurs

with Réka Zempléni
/
  • Most new businesses in Colombia fail, yet people keep starting them anyway, even ones with clearly bad odds. We ran an experiment with real entrepreneurs to find out why.
  • People with the weakest odds were also the most overconfident about their chances. Telling them their real, skill-based odds made some of them back out. People with strong odds kept going regardless.
  • Overconfidence, not a love of risk, is what drives weaker-prospect entrepreneurs to start businesses likely to fail. Something as simple as honest feedback on the odds could help people make better calls.

The high failure rate of new businesses in Colombia suggests a high entry rate among entrepreneurs with only low success potential. We test whether this is driven by incorrectly estimated success likelihoods — the relative roles of ambiguity preferences, confidence, and optimism — and whether these biases vary with true underlying potential. We recruit current, past, and aspiring Colombian entrepreneurs for an online experiment that simulates the decision to become an entrepreneur: participants choose between playing an entrepreneurship-related game for stakes or taking a certain payment, with randomized variation in the information available. Entry is high at baseline — over 80% choose to play — well above what risk preferences can account for. Information about individual, skill-based success likelihoods discourages some lower-potential participants, suggesting overconfidence, while information about the role of luck provides evidence against high optimism or risk-seeking. Overconfidence among lower-potential individuals generates over-entry, but the resulting high failure rate does not deter high-potential individuals' entry.

SCROLL ROTATES THE WHEEL
2026

Candidate Entry Into Local Government

/
  • Local governments often struggle to attract capable, popular leaders. Is that because good candidates don't exist, or because parties won't pick them? We tested this ahead of Sierra Leone's 2023 local elections.
  • Combining community nominations with basic vetting surfaced people who were clearly more qualified and more popular than the usual candidates. A quarter of them went on to actually run for office.
  • The bottleneck isn't a shortage of good candidates. Party leaders keep re-running their own incumbents instead of picking them. Real renewal means changing who parties choose, not just who's available.

The competence of public officials affects state performance and economic growth, yet building this capacity is difficult: it requires protocols to identify more capable, representative individuals; their willingness to run for office; and party interest in supporting their candidacies. We evaluate an experiment designed to parse these problems of identification, entry and gatekeeping in advance of the 2023 local elections in Sierra Leone. A combination of community nominations and technocratic screening identifies individuals who are substantially higher quality and enjoy broader popular support than both incumbents and status quo aspirants. One quarter of top nominees formally enter politics, positively self-selected on quality, and their entry improves the maximum quality observed in candidate applicant pools. Party gatekeepers, however, are not more likely to select these capable, popular nominees and instead favor their own re-running incumbents. Results suggest that the challenge for political renewal is less about supply than demand in this context: there are indeed better potential candidates out there who are willing to run, but institutional party incentives work against selecting them.

IGC BLOG
2026

An Experiment in Decentralization: Evidence from the Zambian Constituency Development Fund

/
  • Zambia dramatically expanded the fund that lets local districts run their own development projects. Working with the government, we tested what happens when districts get even more control over how that money gets spent.
  • Districts with more control got projects approved much faster and moved toward simpler, quicker ways of awarding contracts. Spending also matched what communities actually asked for a bit better. Early signs point to faster completion too, without cutting quality.
  • More local control looks good on paper, but the real result here is faster spending that lines up better with what people want, and no obvious cost in quality. That's a concrete case for decentralizing decisions, not just a theoretical one.

We present initial results from a randomized evaluation that varies the degree of decentralization within Zambia's Constituency Development Fund, which has expanded twenty-fold since 2021. In partnership with the government, we randomly assigned districts to a reform with two components: reducing central government influence over local community project selections, and expanding districts' discretion to use light-touch procurement processes. District officials internalized both reforms, obtaining project approvals substantially faster and shifting hundreds of tenders into simpler procurement processes. Increased discretion modestly improves the sectoral alignment of selected projects with local demand while, at a minimum, not exacerbating existing biases in the spatial allocation of resources. Reduced bidding on tenders appears to reflect a reduction in non-competitive bids rather than a consequential reduction in competition. Early results also suggest this can speed up project completion without negative effects on quality.

IGC PROJECT IGC POLICY DOC PROJECT AT SIL
2024

Informal Taxation in Rural Sierra Leone

/
  • In many rural communities, local chiefs decide who has to contribute unpaid labor to public projects. Is that fairer than the alternatives, or does it just fall hardest on the poor? I tested this with a field experiment in rural Sierra Leone.
  • Letting chiefs pick who contributes caused slightly less dodging of the work than choosing people at random or by household survey. But people still went out of their way, like accepting lower pay elsewhere, to avoid being picked, and that burden lands hardest on poorer households.
  • Traditional authority does about as well as these seemingly fairer alternatives at getting people to pitch in. None of the options tested here stopped the cost from falling on the poor, so fixing that will take more than changing who decides.

This paper investigates the relative merit of traditional leaders in promoting cooperative behavior when informally taxing citizens' labor in low-income states and whether this comes at the expense of relatively poor households. I designed a field experiment to measure whether citizens distort their behavior when facing informal taxation schemes by engaging in costly actions to avoid contributing their labor to a public good. I randomize communities into different methods to select contributors and compare the status quo of selection by chiefs versus two alternatives: random lotteries and progressive selection based on household surveys. Results show that chiefs' informal taxes distort individual behavior slightly less than the alternative mechanisms, revealing that chiefs can indeed promote pro-social behavior but not in a magnitude suggesting large efficiency gains. However, chief selection leads to less overall participant effort during the experiment, suggesting that chiefs' involvement does alter people's incentives during income-generating tasks. When focusing on differences by wealth, I also find chiefs do generate distortions among this group, which are more likely to accept lower wages to avoid being informally taxed by chiefs. On the other hand, progressive selection is slightly more distortionary than chief selection in terms of people avoiding informal taxes through costly actions, shifting costs toward people with intermediate levels of wealth.

IGC POLICY BRIEF
2026

The Limits of Exposure: Socioeconomic Diversity and Teamwork in College

/
  • Can putting students from different economic backgrounds on the same team help bridge Colombia's class divides? We tested this inside a required course at an elite Colombian university.
  • Mixed-background teams met less, liked working together less, and were less willing to team up again, even though grades didn't suffer. Pairing students with an existing friend helped, but mainly for lower-income students.
  • Mixing students by class doesn't build lasting bonds on its own, and it can even backfire. Programs aiming for real integration should probably lean on existing friendships, not just mixed rosters.

Can structured cross socioeconomic status (SES) collaboration in elite universities build economic connectedness? We study this question in a field experiment embedded in a required undergraduate course at Universidad de los Andes during a period of rapidly rising low-SES enrollment. We map within-section friendship networks and elicit students' willingness to trade off working with a friend for working with a higher-performing non-friend, using randomized monetary incentives and randomized SES information about the potential teammate. We then randomly assign students to essay teams that vary in SES composition and instrumentally pair them with a random friend to work with. Baseline networks display strong SES homophily. Making SES salient increases high-SES students' preference to work only with friends, while low-SES students' choices become more homophilous at the top of the performance distribution. In realized teams, SES diversity reduces meeting and satisfaction and lowers willingness to work together again, with little effect on essay grades. These frictions persist in a follow-up survey, while friend-pairing mainly benefits low-SES students.

2024

Too Much or Too Little Faith in Success? Experimental Evidence from Colombian Entrepreneurs

/
  • Most new businesses in Colombia fail, yet people keep starting them anyway, even ones with clearly bad odds. We ran an experiment with real entrepreneurs to find out why.
  • People with the weakest odds were also the most overconfident about their chances. Telling them their real, skill-based odds made some of them back out. People with strong odds kept going regardless.
  • Overconfidence, not a love of risk, is what drives weaker-prospect entrepreneurs to start businesses likely to fail. Something as simple as honest feedback on the odds could help people make better calls.

The high failure rate of new businesses in Colombia suggests a high entry rate among entrepreneurs with only low success potential. We test whether this is driven by incorrectly estimated success likelihoods — the relative roles of ambiguity preferences, confidence, and optimism — and whether these biases vary with true underlying potential. We recruit current, past, and aspiring Colombian entrepreneurs for an online experiment that simulates the decision to become an entrepreneur: participants choose between playing an entrepreneurship-related game for stakes or taking a certain payment, with randomized variation in the information available. Entry is high at baseline — over 80% choose to play — well above what risk preferences can account for. Information about individual, skill-based success likelihoods discourages some lower-potential participants, suggesting overconfidence, while information about the role of luck provides evidence against high optimism or risk-seeking. Overconfidence among lower-potential individuals generates over-entry, but the resulting high failure rate does not deter high-potential individuals' entry.

WORK SUPPORTED BY J-PAL, THE INTERNATIONAL GROWTH CENTRE, THE WEISS FUND & THE STANFORD KING CENTER

Practice

Collection of work related to impact measurement, research grant making, and best practices for fieldwork and partnership-based impact-oriented research.

PILOT & EVALUATION

AI-assisted grant making

A multi-agent AI pipeline that reviews research proposals and supports funding decisions, benchmarked against historical decisions — designed, piloted, and evaluated at Stanford Impact Labs. Presented at Research on Research Institute, the Impact Funders Forum, and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

joint work with Michael Eddy & Julia Spencer
METHODOLOGY

Impact measurement methodology at SIL

How Stanford Impact Labs measures the impact of its diverse social science portfolio. I lead the development of this framework analyzing what each funded project set out to achieve and the evidence of what it delivers, balancing rigor and the limitations of quantifying impact for complex research projects.

TALKS & MENTORING

Field research at every scale

Supporting graduate students doing experimental field research at every scale, from large partnerships with government entities to smaller lab-in-the-field data collection, carefully thinking about the role that each approach plays in advancing science and having impact by supporting better policies. Guest speaker for Stanford courses POLISCI 150C/355C and EDUC 318, and at the Stanford King Center on Global Development.

ONGOING EXAMPLE ↗